Brazil’s Supreme Court Finds Bolsonaro Guilty of Plotting Military Coup

Brazil’s Supreme Court Finds Bolsonaro Guilty of Plotting Military Coup

Brasília, September 11, 2025 - In a landmark decision, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court has convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a military coup to hold onto power after his narrow defeat in the 2022 presidential election. The ruling marks the first time in Brazil’s modern democratic history that a former president has been found guilty of such crimes. Reuters+2The Guardian+2

What the Court Decided

• A panel of five justices was hearing the case. Three of them, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, Justice Flávio Dino, and Justice Cármen Lúcia Antunes Rocha, voted to convict Bolsonaro on five criminal counts. Financial Times+1

• The charges include: attempting a coup d’état; participation in an armed criminal organization; violently trying to abolish the democratic rule of law; damaging state property and cultural heritage; and related wrongdoing. Financial Times+1

• One of the judges, Luiz Fux, dissented, saying there was insufficient evidence directly tying Bolsonaro to parts of the plot and that the court panel may have exceeded its jurisdiction. Financial Times+2The Guardian+2

• The fifth justice is yet to cast their vote as of the ruling. Once that vote comes in, the panel will move to sentencing. Reuters+1

Evidence & Allegations

According to court documents and prosecutors:

• Bolsonaro allegedly worked with military and government officials to plan a decree that could be used to nullify election results or declare an emergency. Financial Times+1

• There was testimony from a key witness, Mauro Cid, his former aide-de-camp, who cooperated under a plea deal. Financial Times+1

• The events surrounding the 8 January 2023 attack on Brazil’s government buildings in Brasília, when supporters of Bolsonaro stormed the Congress, presidential palace, and Supreme Court after the election, formed a centerpiece of the case. Prosecutors say these riots were part of the broader conspiracy. Reuters+2Financial Times+2

Bolsonaro’s Position & What He’s Saying

• Bolsonaro denies all wrongdoing. He and his legal team call the case a politically motivated effort aimed at sidelining him. Financial Times+1

• He is under house arrest in connection to another case, and his supporters claim that the judicial process has been unfair. Financial Times+1

• His defense argues that although there might have been discussions and documents, the coup was never executed by him, that he ordered a peaceful transition after the election. Financial Times+1

Potential Penalties & Legal Ramifications

• If fully convicted by the panel and the rest of the Court, Bolsonaro could face a lengthy prison sentence, possibly up to around 40-43 years. Financial Times+2Reuters+2

• He is also currently banned from holding public office until 2030 due to related rulings. Reuters+1

Reactions, Politically & Socially

• The ruling has sharply divided Brazil. Supporters of Bolsonaro see persecution; opponents see a long-awaited affirmation that democracy can hold powerful actors accountable. Financial Times+2Financial Times+2

• Outside Brazil, the decision has attracted attention for its implications for democratic norms in Latin America and the world. Financial Times+1

• There is discussion in Congress over a possible amnesty law that could benefit Bolsonaro and others convicted. However, many justices in the Supreme Court have indicated that amnesty or pardons are unconstitutional for these kinds of crimes against the democratic order. Financial Times+1

Why This is Historic

• Never before has a former Brazilian president been legally found guilty of attempting to subvert democracy via a coup plot. In a country with a history of military dictatorship (1964–1985) and several political crises, this is seen by many as a turning point. Financial Times+1

• The verdict could become a reference point for how democracies deal with leaders accused of eroding institutions from within.

• It may reshape Brazil’s political landscape - particularly for the far-right forces supportive of Bolsonaro, whose influence remains strong within certain sectors of Brazilian politics.

What’s Next

• Sentencing is expected to be handed down soon after the final justice casts their vote. Reuters+1

• Bolsonaro will likely appeal the verdict to Brazil’s full Supreme Court (11 justices) and possibly to other national or international courts. AP News+1

• Political fallout: supporters may push for laws to reduce his sentence or for legislative efforts of amnesty, but constitutional constraints and judicial pushback could limit that. Financial Times+1

• The outcome may influence the 2026 presidential elections, including who Bolsonaro might support or whether the far right can remain unified. Reuters+1

This verdict is likely to resonate far beyond Brazil. It raises key questions about accountability, the rule of law, and whether democratic systems can withstand internal threats from within state leadership.