Israel and Iran Edge Closer to All-Out War

Israel and Iran Edge Closer to All-Out War: A Balanced Look at the Rising Conflict

June 2025 | Middle East & North Africa

A week of escalating reciprocal strikes between Israel and Iran has erupted into a rare and direct air war, heightening fears of regional instability and sparking international concern. Air raid sirens continue to sound in Tel Aviv and Tehran alike, as the two long-time adversaries exchange missile volleys, drone swarms, and targeted airstrikes. For the first time in decades, the conflict has evolved beyond proxies and rhetoric into head-to-head warfare—an alarming development with implications far beyond the Middle East.

Governments across the globe have begun evacuating their citizens from both countries, and diplomatic missions are rapidly downsizing or closing. As the conflict intensifies, global leaders are walking a diplomatic tightrope, urging de-escalation while grappling with a confrontation that is as ideological as it is geopolitical.

What Sparked the Escalation?

While the Israel-Iran rivalry spans decades, the most recent round of escalation was triggered by an April 2025 strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, attributed by Tehran to the Israeli Air Force. That strike killed several senior members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), prompting promises of retaliation.

Iran responded with an unprecedented direct missile and drone barrage on Israeli territory. While Israel’s Iron Dome and David’s Sling defense systems intercepted most projectiles, several struck near strategic targets, including airbases and intelligence facilities. Israel, in turn, launched a series of preemptive airstrikes on Iranian radar installations, missile batteries, and nuclear infrastructure in Isfahan and Natanz.

The tit-for-tat quickly evolved into an open-air conflict, with both nations deploying advanced military technologies in what many observers fear could become a full-scale regional war.

Iran’s Position: Defiance and Deterrence

Iran's leadership maintains that it is acting in self-defense. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared the airstrikes “a necessary response to years of Israeli aggression and assassination campaigns.” Iran views Israel’s targeting of Iranian assets in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq as an undeclared war that has finally crossed a red line.

State media in Tehran portray the current operations as part of Iran’s “rightful resistance” against Israeli militarism and Western-backed destabilization. Iranian officials also claim that Israeli sabotage has hampered its civilian nuclear energy program—allegations that have been the subject of international dispute for years.

Iran’s military has relied on ballistic missiles, drones, and cyber-attacks in its response, showcasing a modernized force that seeks to project strength without overcommitting to a prolonged ground war.

Israel’s Perspective: National Security at All Costs

For Israel, the conflict is about survival and preemption. The government, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, argues that Iran’s continued support for militant proxies—like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamic Jihad in Gaza—has directly endangered Israeli citizens.

“The Iranian regime does not seek coexistence—it seeks destruction,” Netanyahu stated in a recent national address. “We will not wait for the next missile to fall on Tel Aviv. We are defending our people.”

Israel has long viewed Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat. While Iran insists its enrichment efforts are for peaceful energy purposes, Israel—and much of the West—remain skeptical. With negotiations over the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) effectively dead, Israel has returned to a policy of unilateral deterrence.

Tel Aviv’s air operations have so far focused on degrading Iranian missile capabilities and targeting suspected nuclear research facilities—efforts met with fierce resistance from Iranian forces and condemnation from parts of the international community.

Global Reaction and the Risk of Regional War

The United States, European Union, Russia, and China have all issued urgent calls for restraint. The U.N. Security Council convened an emergency session but failed to reach consensus on a resolution, as divisions between Western and Eastern powers persisted.

Meanwhile, neighboring countries like Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon are bracing for spillover violence. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group in Lebanon, has already exchanged fire with Israeli forces along the northern border, raising concerns that the front could widen beyond Iran and Israel alone.

Gulf States such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—long wary of Iran’s regional ambitions but recently warming to Israel—have adopted cautious tones. While not openly siding with either party, they are preparing for the economic and security shockwaves a prolonged war could bring.

International airlines have canceled flights to and from Iran and Israel, while oil prices have surged amid fears of disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.

The Stakes: More Than Just Military

This conflict isn’t merely a military showdown—it’s a clash of narratives, ideologies, and regional influence.

• For Iran, the conflict is a test of its deterrent power and a message to both its enemies and internal critics that it will not tolerate perceived aggression.

• For Israel, it's a high-risk gamble to eliminate or at least weaken a growing threat that has lurked in the shadows for years.

Caught in between are millions of civilians, from Tel Aviv to Tehran, sheltering in basements and watching the sky with fear.

What Comes Next?

Diplomatic backchannels—particularly via Turkey, Oman, and Switzerland—are reportedly active, but no formal ceasefire talks have materialized. Analysts warn that without outside mediation, miscalculation could lead to broader war.

The Trump administration is under increasing pressure to intervene diplomatically, with some in Congress urging the U.S. to act as a stabilizing force while others argue for unconditional support of Israel.

In the short term, both nations appear unwilling to back down. But for the long term, the cost of continued escalation—for regional stability, global markets, and human lives—may force even the most hardline actors to reconsider their paths.

The Israel-Iran conflict is a stark reminder of how quickly regional tensions can ignite into broader violence. It underscores the need for renewed diplomacy, robust international mediation, and the kind of political courage rarely seen in today’s polarized world.

Peace will not be easy, but war—especially between two regional powerhouses—is already proving catastrophic.

Sources: Reuters, Al Jazeera, The Times of Israel, Tehran Times, United Nations Security Council Briefings, International Crisis Group.